♪ lori: very good monday afternoon, everybody. lori rothman here sitting in for liz claman. we are going to start with breaking news from washington, d.c. leaders from both sides trying to reach a deal. reach edson with the very latest. rich: $800 billion in revenue increases through a tax overhaul. republicans are still opposed to any tax rate increases in this plan. in a show bipartisanship,

republicans say they have co-opt these details from a plant bernsen bowls offered last year. in this letter to the president, republican leaders right this is by no means an adequate long-term solution. it will require fundamental entitlement reform. indeed, though both plant is the exact type of imperfect, but fair one without hurting our economy and creating jobs. today, the white house has demanded an offer from republicans. they now have one. back to you. llri: rich edson, and he thinks. the market is taking a breather today.

dupont and 3m are the biggest draggers on the dow. early stocks rising out of the gate out of some good news out of china over the night. hitting a seven month high, but then the u.s. isf number hit at 10:00 a.m. eastern and a wave of selling. manufacturing activity contracted in november. they say the factory index came in at 49.5 in november. down from almost 52 and october. keep in mind, any number below 50 means contraction. above 50 equals expansion. investors are still worried about tax treatment and dead deals. exelon, the worst of the bunch

our first guest has seen it all. the u.s. economy they fall into a recession next year even if congress strikes a budget deal by year end. joining us from stanford, california, martin feldstein. thank you for being with us. the republicans now responding. negotiations well underway to avoid a fiscal cliff. to your point, you recently said, even if we reach a deal, the economy is still at series risk of a recession. >> that is right. we are looking at and economy that is very weak. growth was very disappointed. less than 2% real gdp growth in 2012. we will be struggling to achieve that next year, even without hitting the economy with more

fiscal bad news. if we go over the cliff, it is really a major downturn. uncertainty remains about what is coming next. put that all together and we could certainly be put on the edge of a recession. lori: that manufacturing number coming in the low 50s, singling contraction. is that the first signal that this economy really is in trouble? >> certainly not the first signal. household earnings down. real disposable personal income has not increased since may. we are really looking at an economy that is weak. ooly thing keeping keeping consumer spending going is that households have been prepared to cut back on their savings rate

to such a low level that i do not think there is more room or that in 2013. lori: there are bright spots on the economy. you have to point to housing. the auto sales numbers that came out today, pretty good. especially ford. holiday sales have been better than expected, as well. >> the housing is the big number. it has definitely turned the corner. it is coming at such a low base that it really is not doing much for gdp growth. we just got the gdp numbers last week. we had residential investment of 14% in real terms. very good. what does it add to gdp, three tenths of 1%. we are coming from such a lopez that it just does not do much for the overall growth rate.

lori: is there anything that can be done that we will avoid a recession altogether? >> not just a small down payment with a big? halfway through next year. i think another thing that can be done is to do these things gradually. i think it remains to be seen whether the deal that either the white house or the republicans want to come up with is going to have the kind of gradual introduction in 2013 that will allow the economy to get on its feet. lori: talking about spending, what are your thoughts on that entitlement? what kind of impact will government spending on things like medicare, social security, i mean, do you think it has gotten out of control? >> it is scheduled to go up by

several percentage of gdp over the next couple decades. that had to be turned around. i think that everyone recognizes that is were spending control has to be focused on if we are to avoid much higher tax rates or an explosive national that. i think it is clear that the republicans are saying we will only go along with higher tax revenue, not higher tax rate, but revenue, if the administration will come forward with some plans to slow the growth of spending. lori: all of this going on against the backdrop where we have had low inflation. the fed has promised these low record rates all the way through 2013. what happens if we do get a situation where the fiscal cliff does involve higher taxes?

you have higher taxes, a slowing economy and baby inflation. what do you think, will it start to kick in click select this is a recipe for disaster >> the accumulation of excess reserves in the commercial banks that right now are just parks at the federal reserve. while the fed says it has an exit strategy, nobody knows at the fed no how high interest rates would have to go to prevent that from becoming the source of inflation later in this decade. that is what worries me. the fed has built up a kind of

liquidity that will be very hard to control. they provide very high interest rates at a time where the unemployment rate is still high in the fed may back away from tightening fast enough to prevent an increase in inflation. lori: do you think interest rates will stay at low levels? the fact we have not had a market reaction stepping in to raise rates sharply, what do you think of that? >> the fed can keep the short rates low, but at some point, rates will have to go back to normal levels and if inflation picks up, they will go up very substantially. it would not surprise me if five years from now we are looking at rates on ten year bonds of 5% and a lot of folks will say, geez, i made a mistake, i should not have bought those long-term bonds.

i lost in the value of those bonds. but remind everybody that the tenure today -- so great to have you with us this afternoon. many thanks for your time. >> good being with you. lori: let's get straight to our floor show. we are joined by mr. willis, dan and alan harry. your thoughts on what is really a lackluster trading day. lori: forgot to turn fans mike on. dan, let's start with you. >> we obviously had some bad news on the cliff and comments over the weekend. we still opened up

substantially. i do not think we are taking to negotiations that seriously yet. we are way far away from a deadline yet. the number really controls the day today. it was a relatively negative. the worst since june 2009. it was pretty much a bad number. even though the iso number is usually not that big of a number, it is one of the huge numbers that will not be directly impacted by hurricane sandy. lori: that is a great point you raised, then. what are your thoughts on the economic data? >> i cannot agree more. the i sm number is what scared this market. china, japan, the united kingdom were not enough to hold us in place. a positive story out of greece. they gave us a little bit of an

early move to the upside. that was all washed away. on the employment data and the adp number we got the first shot at. the expectation for job growth is really one of the smallest numbers we expected to see all year. it should not be too difficult to hurdle to get over. lori: is it fair to say that concerns have been factored into the price market? >> the whole idea that the result has been priced in. the result has not come to pass by the 31st. the market could be in a very precarious position. lori: okay, alan, oil at a two week high. what is the driver there? >> what i am looking at right now is kind of a tug-of-war going on. the fiscal cliff could send crude oil off. we have tensions in the middle east. some better data coming out of

china. right now, to me, it looks like a tug-of-war. they are taking it up to the 90 level. it has to settle above $90 before i am a buyer. very careful and very leery right now, it is the sharp selloff that is going to happen. lori: interesting. the commodity markets still care about the cliff. equities not so much. gentleman, a pleasure to have you this afternoon. all right, so "the closing bell" just about 45 minutes away. find out how it's pushed into a of merging market. ♪ ♪

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lori: dell is back. at least for a day today. up 4.5%. heavy volume making it our power over of the hour. dell getting a thumbs up from goldman sachs. price target going from nine dollars to $13 a share. open analyst saying the earnings estimates have already dropped significantly. the risk reward in the stock is favorable. goldman also talks about strengthening the balance sheet. todd news has turned two week pc sales. all right, retailers on the red today. especially from the department store chains. lauren simonetti has the latest. >> jcpenney down by 3.5%.

for the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday quarter where many really tailor's if 40% of their annual business, jcpenney can see their same-store sales climbed by 32%. jcpenney is looking to end the year with a billion dollars in cash. one of the ways to do that would be aggressively cutting their capital to low levels. that would mean tighter inventory. not the best scenario. jcpenney a big loser today. nordstrom, macy's and target, these chains are also down. that is how we are doing. stocks, overall, are down, as well. lori, back to you. lori: thank you, as always. the drought has taken a toll on supplies. prices soaring over the past year. concerned we may see a repeat in

2013. a repeat in the drought conditions. what does this mean in terms of farming equipment. things like tractors, of course. joining me cochairman and ceo -- >> thank you for the invitation. lori: your full-year outlook, you actually lowered it because of the drought conditions. how is that impacting farm equipment sales? >> some farmers did. their purchases and our grain business was suffering a little bit. the startup did not do as well as scheduled. lori: now you are forecasting worst-case scenario, another drought in the wheat markets in the u.s. how much does the weather impact

your business? >> well, overall, globally, it is a wash. we have not enough here and too much rain in another part of the world. i hope there will be no second drought as big as this one in the u.s. next year. lori: you are boosting operations in china, brazil, russia, what are your plans for emerging markets? >> we are very well off, we are number one with two plants. or than 50% market share and brazil. we invest in 350 million new factories in china. next week, i will go to africa where we open our first. lori: 100 million investments in africa. >> in africa, 1 billion people

living there. the population of africa will double within the next 25 years. that is an important goal. africa has 60% of the world reserves in land. only 20% of the land is farmed. with the higher crop, that is financially viable. lori: the higher crop prices that former are receiving are actually using it for capital upgrades. >> yes. we already own, we call it, demo farm. it has about 30 people. we farm 250 acres. we basically invite customers to explain to them how modernized farming works. lori: because of the drought conditions, because of the overall economic challenges, the fiscal cliff, we have to talk about that, do you find that

farmers are cutting back? >> it is just the opposite. they try to be more advanced in technology. you can do more intelligent farming. also in the case of bad weather conditions. lori: what is the greatest in farming equipment? >> it has everything you would like to have. you could not go to new york and park it and do your business shopping because it goes 40 miles per hour. lori: that is not too shabby. that is actually pretty fast. 13% net profit in the third quarter. what are you forecasting for the duration of the year? >> this is a difficult question to answer. the guidance, about 10 billion

topline and 520 and earnings per share. i think that is where we will be, hopefully a little better. i am pretty optimistic for 2013. lori: farming equipment is not my expertise. this is a wonderful segment. thank you very much. really wonderful to meet you this afternoon. thank you. >> thank you. lori: "the closing bell" ringing in about 40 minutes. who will replace timothy geithner? the president may have his mind made up already. charlie gasparino has the latest. stay with us. ♪

lori: quick market check for you, stocks drifting lower into

the close, we're close to session lows. the dow is down 53 points. has president obama already made up his mind on who will replace treasury secretary timothy geithner? wall street executives say he has. charlie gasparino has the latest. and the winner is? >> jack lew. lori: sure. >> he was the guy coming out of the gates, and for all intelligents and purposes based on the -- intents and purposes based on the word coming out of wall street, they say that the president is leaning heavily towards lew. the big tests, obviously, are these negotiations being led by geithner, and that begins on january 20th when president obama's reinaugurated or inaugurated for a second term, he steps down, he has to appoint someone else, and most people say it's lew's to lose, so to speak. [laughter] like i said, geithner's leading these negotiations, lew is a key

component. and depending how they turn out, if they turn out anywhere near what the president wants dub and i'll tell you, he wants a lot. mostly tax increases, $1.6 trillion in tax increases, you know, double what he wanted during the campaign, he's calling for some budget cuts, but they're very unspecified, so most people don't believe they'll happen. if lew gets to preserve some of that in a deal with republicans, you know, he's golden. most people don't think they'll get all of that, but there's flies in the ointment we should point out. larry fink is often set to be on the periphery, major democratic supporter of president obama during his first term. he's said to be kind of like on a short list. we should point out that larry hasn't been called yet. the president seems to be siding with lew. things could change. fiscal cliff could be a big thing. lori: tell us more about the character of jack lew.

we foe he's -- we know he's a tough negotiator -- >> he's the chief of staff right now. um, you know, he spent some time at citigroup, i know that. he's considered -- he was brought in to citigroup by, i believe, bob rubin, spent time in the clinton administration. people describe him as a pretty partisan guy. he's much more liberal than geithner, although geithner is a guy whether he's liberal or not personally carried the president's water pretty well. you know, i'm not saying he did a good job, i'm just saying he did not deviate from the president's line. you know, it's interesting. guys like bob rubin when they were treasury secretary, he basically went up against the president. if you read some of bob woodward's books, which i have, i mean, the way bob woodward tells it, bob rubin, the treasury secretary for clinton, forced clinton to raise taxes but used that money for deficit reduction because he believed that would control the economy. president clinton did listen to

him. and i'll tell you, i talked to bob rubin about that anecdote where clinton says you tell me a bunch of bond traders control the economy -- i'm paraphrasing -- and rubin said, yes, i am. i asked him about that once a couple years ago, and he said it was true. it wasn't as dramatic woodward made it out to be, but it did has happen. but you didn't get that out of geithner. you kind of don't think you'll get that out of lew. he's very much aligned intellectually with president obama particularly on the notion of fairnesses. you know, you talk to economistses. should we really be raising taxes now? no. hour hour tax increases, we're going to lose the deductions -- >> probably shouldn't be cutting that much. the economy is like in a very weird state right now, kind of like i think the notion is to grow it now, you know? and, you know, this guy doesn't see that. he sees raising taxes not as an economic efficiency so to speak, but as you know, you don't get a

lot of tax revenues out of that, but more as a fairnesses issue. and he's aligned with the president on that. so that's where lew is. lori: since we're handicapping cabinet positions, which bank or hedge fund do you think geithner ends up at? >> that's a good question. i haven't really asked. you know, i'm sure he's going the look to make money. the guyys been in government most of his life. i think he did a little work early on -- lori: how many years was he at the new york fed? >> i think eight, but i could be wrong. i just remember looking at his bio, and he spent some time with kissinger and associates, but that was way early in his career. i believe he was at the world bank, then he was at the fed, and now he's at treasury. he's a guy that, you know, was in, was in government for a long, long time. it's not a, you know, so you figure he's making, what, he's not making a hell of a lot of money, right? lori: thank you. >> so he'll work somewhere. you know, i'll tell you, if

larry fink stays at blackrock, i could see him going to blackrock. lori: okay. >> we should also point out that he's friends with jamie dimon. lori: we're going to hit our break. >> i'm sorry. lori: i could talk to you all day. >> i don't wear earpieces, so i don't have people screaming in my ear. lori: it was interesting, of course, as always. closing bell ringing in half an hour. microsoft wants to be relevant in tablets. more on that when we return, stick with us here. [laughter] ♪ she keeps you guessing.

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♪ >> i'm robert gray with your fox business brief.

house republican leaders are calling for more than $2 trillion in deficit reductions in their latest effort to avoid the fiscal cliff. the cuts would take effect over a decade's time. they're also proposing to increase the eligibility age for medicare and to lower the cost of living hikes in social security. meanwhile, house democrats are saying mf global play about thely misled finra on the firm's edges pose your the -- exposure to the european debt crisis. the comments are an addendum to the majority staff report on mf global. and research company comscore reports online sales reached nearly $20.5 billion during the first 30 days of the holiday season. tablet computers continue to drive online sales. and now we continue our "countdown to the closing bell" with lori rothman. lori: one hard luck chip maker

pushing higher as it announces plans to raise cash. lauren simonetti at the new york stock exchange with this one. lauren? >> reporter: hey, lori. advanced micro devices, it's one of the oldest chip makers, and it's cash strapped. so, essentially, it's going to sell its campus, 58 acres of it, and then lease it back so it can maintain operations. anyway, the stock is soaring on the news, look at it. it's up 7% right now. number one performer in the s&p 500, so invest beers are certainly -- investors are certainly liking this creativity among amd. back to you. lori: thank you, lauren. microsoft is getting tough press about its tablets, several reports saying demand for the surface tablet is so weak that microsoft has cut orders from its asian manufacturers in half. is the surface doomed already? shibani joshi is here with more. >> coming out next week, and people are already talking about this being doa. that's not necessarily a good indication of what's going to come from microsoft. but that being said, um, there's

lots of great benefits and things and perks that people are talking about, um, associate with the thii surface tablet. one of them, however, is not the price tag, and that's part of the complexity of this story. the company revealing just a few days ago what the price will be of the microsoft surface rt and the pro device. it's $70 more than the basic version of the ipad coming at $899. apple doesn't have 128 gig one, but i'm hearing today reading from tech blog/gear that there's already talk about this company planning three new devices for next year. so what you're going to have the confusion about whether or not people want to buy the device today, or they're saying, oh, if there's a new device coming out next year, should i wait for those surprrses? in between you're more than likely goiig to see price cuts because we've seen all the big electronics manufacturers doing this, and it just could complicate things for microsoft as it tries to make itself known in the tablet and hardware

device area at the same time. lori: is it surprising that microsoft would come out with a product that's more expensive? i mean, the ipad is an institution already. how can they charge more for this? >> you know, what they're trying to deliver to the end user is a workhorse, professionally-geared device. they're not trying to compete against the cheap devices, the ones that are just for browsing and watching videos. what they have is a great processer, some great features, a stylus, a a keyboard, we've all seen it. some great devices that are kind of like a hybrid, ultrabooking, laptop. there's lots of choices out there, so -- lori: going to go out there and get it from microsoft, you know? >> a lot of the analysts are in agreement with you. lori: closing bell ringing in about 15, 16 minutes. still worrying about the fess call cliff? -- fiscal cliff? we have got you covered. paul dietrich is up with his best investment ideas that will deliver returns no water happens

in -- no matter what happens in washington. that's a relief. he's up next. ♪ want to try to crack it? yeah, that's the way to do it!

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lori: all right, closing in on the closing bell, here's your fox business market check. as consumer sentiment is sitting at new highs, credit card companies visa, mastercard, discover hit new highs before pulling back. they have been big winners this year, and talking about momentum, mastercard hit new highs 25 times this year. visa, discover, get this, 40

times reached unchartered territory. now, check out credit rating ec by fact. that price tag, $1 billion, is part of the deal. csc agreed not to compete with equifax in its credit service business for five years. go t -- got a loot of news from the automakers today, helped largely by hurricane sandy. robert gray joins us live from the newsroom to break down the numbers for us and, robert, people lost their cars, they had to replace them. >> they did, indeed, lori, and some insurance companies started cutting checks towards the end of the month. in fact, that is expected to carry over to this month as well as people continue to get claims and get paid off on them. there's also cheap financing out them where interest rates remain historically low. consumers still feel pretty confident, fiscal cliff be damned, apparently, at least that's what they say in recent

surveys, and, of course, we have the bounce in home sales and construction driving pickups, the ford f series its best november since 2005, and cars are, frankly, older than ever. the average car now 11 plus years here in the u.s. here's your sales figures right there, you can see ford up 6.5%, toyota up 17%, chrysler, its best month of november since 2007. that was, of course, it slid into bankruptcy and got bailed out by the government. ford sales a 6% gain, we mentioned that, small cars up by three-quarters where they were a year ago, so perhaps some of the gasoline lines encouraged folks to get smaller cars with the new cycle, perhaps. and, of course, general motors said their retail sales were flat, sales coming from fleet sales. and we know fleets have been playing catchup during the crisis and the great recession, they held off on upgrading those fleet sales. hyundai also having a record month, an 8% gain, and

volkswagen exceed anything 11 months its full year target of a half a million cars sold by the end of november, so they're already ahead of their schedule this. back to you. larry: thanks, robert gray, on the sales figures for the month of november. as the pressure mounts to make a deal by year end, the u.s. could still be facing years of trillion dollar deficits, so how should investors prepare portfolios? paul dietrich joins us in this fox business exclusive live from washington d.c. paul, thank you so much for joining us. first, basic advice for everyday investors. how do you sift through the noise being created by all this talk and negotiation back and forth on the fiscal cliff? >> well, almost the consensus is here in washington that everybody believes that there will eventually be a deal. the problem is that the republicans are the exceedingly weak negotiating position, and in the end the deal that's going to be cut is still going to leave investors with a trillion

to a trillion two in deficit spending and printing money every year for the next years. and the only way an investor is going to be able to hedge the loss of buying power in his portfolio, his or her portfolio is by investing in gold or gold mining stocks like gdl or gdx. lori: i'm sorry, i was just kind of chuckling to myself. the gold, well, buy those bars of gold, bury it in your backyard, buy those assets, buy real things. >> i think, i think the answer is not to be buying bouillon, but to be buying, like, gdl etfs and gdx. in fact, our firm this week is bringing out a new mutual fund, the fairfax gold and precious metals fund, golmx -- lori: the miners really haven't done much for years though. >> they go in a cycle. lori: uh-huh. >> and they are historically

undervalued to gold right now. and for those people who are looking for gold not as an investment to trade, but are looking at it as a hedge over time for their portfolios and the loss of buying power, this is really the best way to buy gold because you're buying gold at a fraction of the cost of bouillon. lori: do you think we will become energy independent as a nation, and would you be investing on that theme? >> yes. i'm looking at several trends over the last five or six months that really seem to be accelerating. and one of them is energy. we are going to probably be energy independent in the united states because of all the new technology and oil fracking and natural gas fracking. we've created 33,000 new jobs in the last few months, and also there's an enormous amount of private infrastructure that's being engineered right now for pipelines to get the new gas and

oil from where it is into the pipelines -- lori: so the best integrated energy, exxonmobil? >> exxonmobil is the choice for that particular trend. lori: okay. let's move on and talk about some of the grains. i know you've got some picks in agriculture as well. >> yeah. agriculture, i mean, agriculture products are going to continue to go up. not only do we have weather problems which are going to be continuing probably, but it's the demand. especially from asia as millions of new people, it's all demographics, are moving into the middle class. they want protein, and that's the sort of products that america exports. farmers, the midwest, these people are going to benefit for the next 20 years on this trend. lori: so this is -- >> i pick monsanto. i really like monsanto. i think that's the best biotech company in the world, and it's going to play a major role in creating more and more

productivity per acre for farmers. lori: and are you looking solely at the u.s. domestic investments? you've got to work multi-nationals into this as well, right? we were talking with the ceo of agco who says they're investing in africa because of challenges here in the u.s.. >> there's no question about it. and there are a lot of people looking at agricultural land in brazil. that is another big area. and i think this is going to expand, but the demographics especially in asia are outstripping the supply to matter how fast we start turning land into productive land. lori: okay. good info. paul dietrich, thank you, sir. all right, minutes away from the closing bell. you'll want to keep it right here on fox business. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer they are a glowing example of what it means to be the best.

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lori: as we approach the closing bell, some stocks in the news, ldk solar, one stock not looking so hot today, down 10% as we head into the final minutes of trading, shares again are down here. taking a hit after reporting a loss in its third quarter plus slashing revenue forecasts and announcing it laid off 2500 employees in the third quarter as high u.s. import duties and weak prices dent shipments of solar cells and paneled. the battered stock is down more than 75% the past year, again, that's ldk solar. and i will send it over to my wonderful colleagues david asman and sandra smith for "after the bell." david: sandy in for liz today, good to see you. san da: good to see you. david: jpmorgan whale trader, the senate's been investigating it. questioning as many as 80 people

who may have been associated. we're expecting some breaking news any moment now about that investigation. l. >> and we'll have that for you as it comes in. david: let's go to lauren simonetti. she's at the new york stock exchange. lauren, let's start right off, what's happening? the market is down 56 points on the dow right now. dell, however, had a nice pop today based on what goldman sachs was saying about it. >> exactly. goldman upgrading the stock all the way to a buy from a sell. it was one of the best performers not only on the s&p 500, but also on the nasdaq 100. so dell certainly a winner today. >> and, lauren, we saw you wearing your uggs on the trading floor, deckers outdoor the maker of those boots, it's getting a nice pop. >> up more than 9%. the folks over at stern ag upping the stock to a buy but also saying the season of the ugg is going to be august of